Increases in a country's exposure to global risks and shocks have important implications for the business environment. While these risks post immediate operational challenges for investors, they also erode a country's resilience and thus its ability to adapt to risks and crises.
While investors are increasingly turning their attention to frontier economies such as Nigeria or Myanmar, rising vulnerability to global risks could dampen potential investment returns.
Maplecroft identified 30 "growth markets" based on their economic potential, but warned that 40 percent of
them were categorized as "high risk". These included China and India in Asia and Nigeria and Tanzania in Africa.
"As the importance of these countries to the world economy increases, shocks — such as severe storms — stand to have an amplified impact on supply chains and business operations," Maplecroft said in its report.
It sounded a cautious note on Nigeria, which is widely tipped to be the next growth hot spot.
"A significant decline in the rule of law in Nigeria is combining with an 'extreme risk' of corruption and a burgeoning illicit economy," Maplecroft said. "As a result, the country, which also contends with very high levels of poverty and growing political violence, is even less equipped to deal with its high levels of exposure to 'global risks'."
Investors are also increasingly looking to tap into Sub-Saharan Africa, where gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 5.3 percent in 2014, according to the World Bank. Yet, nearly 75 percent of the countries that have seen a significant increase in risk over the past three years are located in the region, according to Maplecroft. Conflict, climate change, pandemics, food and water supply and energy security are among the risks that could stifle its stellar growth.
"While investors are eager to enter and expand into sub-Saharan Africa's growing markets, the continent's potential hinges on establishing confidence that the government is sufficiently robust and accountable," said Charles Laurie, head of Maplecroft's Africa practice.
Source: CNBC
